Wales vs Denmark: preview, stats and prediction
Nations League (Europe): Wales vs Denmark, Sunday, 4 October at 22:45 (GMT+4). We break down both teams' recent matches and estimate how many corners, cards and fouls to expect.
Team form
WalesLast 5: 1W 1D 3L. Goals: 0.8 scored, 1.4 conceded per game.
| For | Against | |
|---|---|---|
| Corners | 5.2 | 5.8 |
| Cards | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Fouls | 11.4 | 12.0 |
| Shots | 13.0 | 17.8 |
| Shots on target | 4.4 | 5.2 |
| Offsides | 2.0 | 3.2 |
| Throw-ins | 15.4 | 16.0 |
| Goal kicks | 7.8 | 7.4 |
DenmarkLast 5: 2W 1D 2L. Goals: 1.6 scored, 1.6 conceded per game.
| For | Against | |
|---|---|---|
| Corners | 3.4 | 4.2 |
| Cards | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Fouls | 8.4 | 13.0 |
| Shots | 13.4 | 10.6 |
| Shots on target | 4.6 | 5.2 |
| Offsides | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Throw-ins | 16.0 | 13.2 |
| Goal kicks | 5.2 | 9.2 |
Incidents — average over the last 5 matches.
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Wales 0 wins, 0 draws, Denmark 4 wins.
Average per meeting:
Key facts
- Denmark have had no more than 12 fouls in any of their last 10 matches.
- Denmark's high in the last 10: 13 corners against Belarus (2–2) — their average is 6.1.
- Wales had more corners than their opponent in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- Denmark are unbeaten in their last 4 meetings with Wales.
- None of Wales's last 6 matches had more than 35 throw-ins.
- Wales have conceded in each of their last 8 matches.
Most confident picks
Percentage — our model's probability that the line lands.
- Cards: Under 5.5 — 77%
- Offsides: Under 4.5 — 77%
- Fouls: Under 25.5 — 67%
Our expectations
Our model expects around 9.9 corners, 4.1 cards, 23.2 fouls, 29.8 shots in this match.
| Incident | Total | Wales | Denmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | 9.9 | 5.3 | 4.6 |
| Cards | 4.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Fouls | 23.2 | 12.5 | 10.7 |
| Shots | 29.8 | 12.8 | 17.1 |
| Shots on target | 10.7 | 4.6 | 6.1 |
| Offsides | 3.3 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Throw-ins | 37.0 | 18.9 | 18.1 |
| Goal kicks | 16.0 | 8.3 | 7.7 |
Full match stats and prediction →
This analysis was generated automatically by our statistical model, updated 04.10.2026 · 03:52. It is not betting advice. 18+