Luxembourg vs Bulgaria: preview, stats and prediction
Luxembourg host Bulgaria on Tuesday, 6 October at 22:45 (GMT+4) — Nations League (Europe). Below: team form, head-to-head record and our model's expectations for match incidents.
Team form
LuxembourgLast 5: 2W 0D 3L. Goals: 0.6 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
| For | Against | |
|---|---|---|
| Corners | 3.0 | 7.0 |
| Cards | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| Fouls | 13.4 | 11.8 |
| Shots | 9.4 | 14.0 |
| Shots on target | 3.2 | 5.8 |
| Offsides | 1.4 | 3.2 |
| Throw-ins | 17.6 | 20.0 |
| Goal kicks | 7.8 | 5.8 |
BulgariaLast 5: 0W 2D 3L. Goals: 0.6 scored, 1.6 conceded per game.
| For | Against | |
|---|---|---|
| Corners | 3.2 | 5.0 |
| Cards | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Fouls | 10.4 | 14.8 |
| Shots | 12.0 | 9.6 |
| Shots on target | 3.4 | 4.6 |
| Offsides | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Throw-ins | 27.6 | 21.2 |
| Goal kicks | 5.8 | 7.6 |
Incidents — average over the last 5 matches.
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Luxembourg 1 win, 3 draws, Bulgaria 2 wins.
Average per meeting:
Key facts
- Bulgaria's high in the last 10: 18 shots on target against Solomon Islands (10–2) — their average is 4.4.
- Each of the last 5 meetings between these teams had at least 25 fouls.
- Luxembourg have had no more than 4 corners in any of their last 10 matches.
- None of Bulgaria's last 6 matches had more than 25 shots.
- Both teams scored in only 1 of Luxembourg's last 10 matches.
- None of Luxembourg's last 10 matches had more than 28 shots.
Most confident picks
Percentage — our model's probability that the line lands.
- Cards: Under 6.5 — 72%
- Offsides: Under 4.5 — 72%
- Goal kicks: Under 15.5 — 70%
Our expectations
Our model expects around 8.8 corners, 5.2 cards, 25.6 fouls, 24.6 shots in this match.
| Incident | Total | Luxembourg | Bulgaria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | 8.8 | 5.1 | 3.7 |
| Cards | 5.2 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Fouls | 25.6 | 13.4 | 12.1 |
| Shots | 24.6 | 12.3 | 12.3 |
| Shots on target | 9.7 | 4.4 | 5.3 |
| Offsides | 3.5 | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Throw-ins | 41.4 | 20.9 | 20.5 |
| Goal kicks | 13.4 | 6.1 | 7.2 |
Full match stats and prediction →
This analysis was generated automatically by our statistical model, updated 04.10.2026 · 03:52. It is not betting advice. 18+