Greece vs Germany: preview, stats and prediction
Greece host Germany on Sunday, 4 October at 22:45 (GMT+4) — Nations League (Europe). Below: team form, head-to-head record and our model's expectations for match incidents.
Team form
GreeceLast 5: 2W 2D 1L. Goals: 1.4 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
| For | Against | |
|---|---|---|
| Corners | 4.0 | 4.4 |
| Cards | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Fouls | 9.2 | 10.0 |
| Shots | 13.4 | 13.4 |
| Shots on target | 3.6 | 4.4 |
| Offsides | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Throw-ins | 13.6 | 18.4 |
| Goal kicks | 9.4 | 5.8 |
GermanyLast 5: 1W 2D 2L. Goals: 1 scored, 1 conceded per game.
| For | Against | |
|---|---|---|
| Corners | 7.8 | 4.8 |
| Cards | 1.0 | 2.8 |
| Fouls | 13.2 | 12.0 |
| Shots | 18.0 | 9.0 |
| Shots on target | 4.8 | 3.6 |
| Offsides | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Throw-ins | 21.8 | 15.2 |
| Goal kicks | 4.2 | 13.0 |
Incidents — average over the last 5 matches.
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Greece 1 win, 0 draws, Germany 1 win.
Average per meeting:
Key facts
- Germany average 3.8 corners per game away and 9.9 at home — and this one is away.
- Greece's high in the last 10: 10 shots on target against Scotland (3–2) — their average is 4.1.
- Germany have had at least 17 throw-ins in each of their last 10 matches.
- Germany had more shots than their opponent in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- Every one of Greece's last 7 matches had at least 13 goal kicks.
- Greece failed to score in 4 of their last 10 matches.
Most confident picks
Percentage — our model's probability that the line lands.
- Offsides: Over 1.5 — 75%
- Cards: Under 4.5 — 70%
- Goal kicks: Under 17.5 — 68%
Our expectations
Our model expects around 10.7 corners, 3.6 cards, 23.2 fouls, 29.1 shots in this match.
| Incident | Total | Greece | Germany |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | 10.7 | 6.2 | 4.5 |
| Cards | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Fouls | 23.2 | 11.1 | 12.1 |
| Shots | 29.1 | 12.5 | 16.7 |
| Shots on target | 10.6 | 5.6 | 5.0 |
| Offsides | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Throw-ins | 34.3 | 15.9 | 18.5 |
| Goal kicks | 15.5 | 9.0 | 6.5 |
Full match stats and prediction →
This analysis was generated automatically by our statistical model, updated 04.10.2026 · 03:52. It is not betting advice. 18+