Estonia vs Iceland: preview, stats and prediction
Estonia host Iceland on Tuesday, 6 October at 22:45 (GMT+4) — Nations League (Europe). Below: team form, head-to-head record and our model's expectations for match incidents.
Team form
EstoniaLast 5: 3W 2D 0L. Goals: 0.8 scored, 0.2 conceded per game.
| For | Against | |
|---|---|---|
| Corners | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| Cards | 2.2 | 4.0 |
| Fouls | 15.6 | 12.0 |
| Shots | 8.4 | 11.4 |
| Shots on target | 4.4 | 3.6 |
| Offsides | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Throw-ins | 20.6 | 21.2 |
| Goal kicks | 7.8 | 3.6 |
IcelandLast 5: 2W 1D 2L. Goals: 1.4 scored, 1 conceded per game.
| For | Against | |
|---|---|---|
| Corners | 4.2 | 2.6 |
| Cards | 3.2 | 2.0 |
| Fouls | 13.4 | 12.4 |
| Shots | 11.4 | 10.6 |
| Shots on target | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Offsides | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Throw-ins | 17.0 | 21.6 |
| Goal kicks | 3.8 | 8.4 |
Incidents — average over the last 5 matches.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Estonia 0 wins, 4 draws, Iceland 1 win.
Average per meeting:
Key facts
- Iceland's high in the last 10: 6 cards against Argentina (0–3) — their average is 2.2.
- Estonia have had at least 12 fouls in each of their last 9 matches.
- Iceland average 2.6 shots on target per game away and 5.3 at home — and this one is away.
- None of Iceland's last 10 matches had more than 28 shots.
- None of Estonia's last 8 matches had more than 27 shots.
- Estonia are unbeaten in 5 matches (3W 2D).
Most confident picks
Percentage — our model's probability that the line lands.
- Offsides: Under 4.5 — 72%
- Cards: Under 6.5 — 71%
- Shots: Under 25.5 — 68%
Our expectations
Our model expects around 6.9 corners, 5.3 cards, 25.4 fouls, 23 shots in this match.
| Incident | Total | Estonia | Iceland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | 6.9 | 3.9 | 3.0 |
| Cards | 5.3 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Fouls | 25.4 | 13.9 | 11.5 |
| Shots | 23.0 | 10.1 | 13.0 |
| Shots on target | 8.3 | 4.8 | 3.6 |
| Offsides | 3.5 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Throw-ins | 39.0 | 20.2 | 18.7 |
| Goal kicks | 13.9 | 7.7 | 6.1 |
Full match stats and prediction →
This analysis was generated automatically by our statistical model, updated 04.10.2026 · 03:52. It is not betting advice. 18+